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ISSN : 1225-0171(Print)
ISSN : 2287-545X(Online)
Korean Journal of Applied Entomology Vol.64 No.3 pp.193-201
DOI : https://doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2025.07.0.025

An Approach to Reduce the Overestimation of Thermal Accumulation in Degree Day Modeling by Applying Lower, Optimal, and Upper Threshold Temperatures

Dong-Soon Kim1,2*
1Majors in Plant Resource Sciences & Environment, College of Applied Life Science, SARI, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea
2The Research Institute for Subtropical Agriculture and Biotechnology, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea

Abstract

The relationship between temperature and insect development has been a central topic in biology since the 18th century. Linear degree-day models, based on lower threshold temperature and thermal constants, have long been used for pest forecasting due to their simplicity. However, they are only valid within the intermediate temperature range and tend to overestimate or underestimate development rates at temperature extremes. To address this, models using sine-curve approximations and cutoff methods have been proposed. The conventional two-threshold sine curve method applies a horizontal cutoff at the upper threshold to reduce overestimation. However, this approach can still overestimate effective temperatures when daily maximum temperatures exceed the optimal or upper threshold. This review introduces an improved method that incorporates three biologically meaningful thresholds-lower, optimal, and upper-and applies both horizontal (at the optimal temperature) and vertical (at the upper threshold) cutoffs. Termed the threethreshold- based sine curve method with double cutoff (SLOUM), this approach uses sine-function-based hourly temperature estimates to more accurately capture insect development potential. Simulation results show that SLOUM significantly reduces overestimation under high-temperature conditions, which are common in greenhouses and increasingly frequent due to climate change. Despite some residual overestimation between the optimal and upper thresholds, this method offers a practical improvement. Additionally, this review clarifies conceptual confusion in the literature regarding the definition of the upper threshold. In the long term, further refinement using nonlinear development rate models may provide the most biologically accurate predictions.

초록

Vol. 40 No. 4 (2022.12)

Journal Abbreviation Korean J. Appl. Entomol.
Frequency Quarterly
Doi Prefix 10.5656/KSAE
Year of Launching 1962
Publisher Korean Society of Applied Entomology
Indexed/Tracked/Covered By